Page 121 - 2022-32-中国全科医学

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to 2020，providing a basis for the formulation of chronic disease prevention and control policies. Methods The cause-of-
death data of Shenzhen permanent residents（30-69 years old） came from the all-cause-of-death surveillance system operated
by the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The causes were classified into four major NCDs including cancer
（C00-C97），diabetes （E10-E14），cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases （I00-I99），and chronic respiratory
disease （J30-J98） in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases，Tenth Revision （ICD-10）. Crude
mortality，age-standardized mortality and probability of premature death were used for analyzing deaths due to the four above-
mentioned NCDs. The annual percentage change （APC） was used to measure the temporal trend of each index. Results During
2014-2020，no significant changes were found in the overall trends of crude mortality and age-standardized mortality of the four
major NCDs （APC=-2.70%，P>0.05；APC=-2.00%，P>0.05），while the proportion of deaths due to the four major NCDs
of all deaths（76.58% -82.63%） showed a significantly increasing trend （APC=1.20%，P <0.05）. To be specific，the trend
of crude mortality of cancer（APC=-1.90%，-0.90%；P>0.05），diabetes（APC=3.80%，2.20%；P>0.05） and chronic
respiratory diseases（APC=-1.30%，-0.60%；P>0.05） changed insignificantly，so did the trend of age-standardized mortality
of them，while the crude mortality and age-standardized mortality（34.22%-48.85%） of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular
diseases showed a notable decrease （APC=-4.70%，-4.60%；P<0.05）. In women，the crude mortality and age-standardized
mortality of diabetes demonstrated a notable decrease （APC=-17.00%，-17.00%；P<0.05），so did those of cardiovascular
and cerebrovascular disease （APC=-7.10%，-6.10%；P<0.05）. The probability of premature death caused by the four major
NCDs during the period fluctuated from 10.17 to 12.45%，but with no significant changes （P>0.05）. But the trend in the
probability of premature death caused by cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease showed an obvious decrease （APC=-5.10%，
P<0.05）. The probability of premature death from diabetes and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in women decreased
（APC=-18.70%，-5.40%；P<0.05）. The probability of premature death caused by the four major NCDs in males ranged
from 12.78% to 17.09%，which was higher than that （6.59% to 8.13%） in females. Conclusion The crude mortality，age-
standardized mortality and probability of premature death caused by cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease among Shenzhen
permanent residents showed a decreasing trend during 2014-2020. In particular，the crude mortality and age-standardized
mortality and probability of premature death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and diabetes among females declined
significantly. The probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases fluctuated between 12.78%-17.09% in males
and 6.59%-8.13% in females. The probability of premature death of the four major chronic diseases in males was higher than that
in females.
【Key words】 Chronic disease；Mortality，premature；Cardiovascular diseases；Neoplasms；Diabetes mellitus；
Data collection；Temporal trend；Epidemiologic methods；Shenzhen

世界卫生组织将 30~69 岁发生的死亡定义为“过早 测系统，并在深圳市殡葬管理所设立死亡登记点，由专
死亡”（简称早死），并推荐将恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、 业人员负责死因登记与核实，登记的依据为由各级医院
糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病 4 类慢性非传染性疾病（以 或公安机关按全国疾病监测系统死因监测工作规范 ［5］
下简称慢性病）的过早死亡概率作为评估慢性病对人群 开具的死亡医学证明书。人口资料来源于深圳市统计局。
健康影响和慢性病防治水平的重要指标 ［1］ 。我国慢性 根据国际疾病分类（ICD-10）进行统计，4 类主要慢性
病逐渐成为影响国家经济社会发展和人群健康的重大公 病包括恶性肿瘤（C00~C97）、糖尿病（E10~E14）、
共卫生问题，针对这一现状，深圳市落实《健康中国行 心脑血管疾病（I00~I99）、慢性呼吸系统疾病（J30~J98）。
［2］
动（2019—2030 年）》 和《健康深圳行动计划（2017— 1.2 早死概率 早死概率指当年 30 岁的人群如果预计以
2020 年）》 ［3］ 战略部署，加强深圳市心脑血管疾病、 当年人口中 30~69 岁各个年龄组（5 岁组）的死亡概率存
癌症、慢性呼吸系统疾病、糖尿病等慢性非传染性疾病 活到 69 岁时的死亡概率。4 类主要慢性病早死概率即指
防控工作。本研究通过分析 2014—2020 年深圳市户籍 活至 30 岁的人群在 70 岁之前因为 4 类主要慢性病（心脑
居民的 4 类重大慢性病死亡监测数据，掌握其死亡率、 血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、慢性呼吸系统疾病）导致
标化死亡率、早死概率等指标，为降低该地区慢性病危 死亡的概率 ［10］ 。早死概率（ 40 q 30 ）=1- ∏ 65 x=30 （1- 5 q x ），
害、制订该地区慢性病防控措施提供数据支持 ［4］ 。 5 q x 为某年龄组死亡概率， 5 q x = 5 M x ×5 ， 5 M x 为年龄组
1 资料与方法 1+ 5 M x ×2.5
1.1 资料来源 2014—2020 年深圳市户籍居民死亡资 死亡率， 5 M x = 同年内 x 年龄组死于 4 类慢性病的人数 。
某 x 年龄组平均人口数
料及死因资料来源于深圳市疾病预防控制中心全死因监 1.3 统计学方法 采用 Excel 2010 对数据进行整理、统