BackgroundThe treatment scheme for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients is related to whether lymph node metastasis is prevalent or not. The routine ultrasound indicator used alone has proven to have a low sensitivity to predict the presence of lymph node metastasis in PTC.
ObjectiveTo explore the value of combined use of ultrasonographic indicators in predicting central lymph node metastasis in PTC.
MethodsClinical data of PTC patients (n=446) with thyroid surgery and central neck dissection were collected retrospectively from the First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi University School of Medicine from March 2013 to May 2020, involving sex, age, and ultrasonographic features 〔diameter of nodule, number of nodules, location of single and multiple nodules, internal composition, internal echo, boundary, margin, micro calcification, anteroposterior and transverse diameter (A/T) ratio, posterior echo attenuation, capsular invasion〕. Postoperative pathological results confirmed that 159 cases (35.65%) with central lymph node metastasis and other 287 (64.35%) without. Unconditional stepwise binary Logistic regression was used to explore the factors associated with central lymph node metastasis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to estimate the predictive value of each indicator for central lymph node metastasis.
ResultsPatients with and without central lymph node metastasis had significant differences in sex ratio, distribution of age, thyroid nodule diameter, margin conditions, and A/T ratio, as well as prevalence of micro calcification and capsular invasion (P<0.05) . Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that male 〔OR=1.727, 95%CI (1.059, 2.816) 〕, <45 years old 〔OR=2.690, 95%CI (1.728, 4.187) 〕, diameter of the thyroid nodule >10 mm 〔OR=2.385, 95%CI (1.544, 3.684) 〕, and capsular invasion 〔OR=1.773, 95%CI (1.153, 2.724) 〕 were independently associated with increased risk of central lymph node metastasis (P<0.05) . And the Logistic regression algorithm was: Logit (P) =-1.627+0.546×sex +0.989×age+0.869× (thyroid nodule diameter) +0.572× (capsular invasion) . In predicting central lymph node metastasis, the AUC of combination of four indicators in the algorithm was 0.695〔95%CI (0.650, 0.738) 〕, with 67.92% sensitivity, and 61.67% specificity, and 0.32 optimal cut-off value. The AUC of the combination of four indicators was larger than that of sex, age, thyroid nodule diameter, or capsular invasion alone (Z=4.137, 3.682, 3.070, 3.679, P<0.05) .
ConclusionBeing male, age <45 years old, thyroid nodule diameter>10 mm, and capsular invasion were independent risk factors for central lymph node metastasis in PTC, and the value of combined use of them had a higher predictive value for central lymph node metastasis.