Data from our National Cancer Center showed that there were 16,351 deaths from brain tumors in 2016, ranking 10th in the spectrum of cancer deaths in China. The top 3 countries with the highest number of brain tumor deaths worldwide in 2020 were China, India, and the United States. Once a brain tumor occurs, it can lead to increased intracranial pressure and compression of brain tissue, resulting in painful and severe central nervous system damage, as well as serious disabilities, including seizures, memory or speech problems, and physical dysfunction. The disease burden of brain tumors in China is also increasing year by year due to their special location, complex diagnostic tools, and the gradual aging of population, and they have become a difficult issue in the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases in China. Therefore, conducting studies on the long-term epidemiological characteristics of brain tumors in China and predicting future changes appropriately can help to obtain clues on the etiology of brain tumors and provide timely scientific and effective means of prevention and control.
This study extracted data related to brain tumor deaths in China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) from 2000-2019, and used Joinpoint regression model, age-time cohort (APC) model to analyze and evaluate the mortality rate, and predicted the mortality trend of brain tumor in the next 5 years by using gray model GM (1, 1), aiming to provide a basis for the prevention and control of brain tumor and reduce the disease burden in China.
Data of brain cancer deaths in China from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019，including CMR and agestandardized mortality rate（ASMR，calculated using the age composition of the 2019 world population）. The mortality trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. The age，period and birth cohort effects of CMR were estimated by intrinsic estimator （IE） and age-period-cohort model （APC model）. GM（1，1） model was established by R（4.1.3） to predict the CMR of brain cancers in 2020-2024.
In summary, the overall trend of brain tumor ASMR in China from 2000 to 2019 is decreasing, and the risk of death increases with age and period passage, and the earlier of birth, the greater risk of death will be. The model prediction results show that the mortality rate of brain tumors in China will continue to rise in the next 5 years, and the situation of brain tumor prevention and control in China remains severe. The increasingly prominent problem of population aging in China may also further aggravate the disease burden of brain tumors in the future. Therefore, the prevention and treatment of brain tumors in China should focus on the elderly population, while reducing occupational exposure, quitting smoking, limiting alcohol, maintaining body mass in the appropriate range, and strengthening the publicity and education of brain tumor prevention. We should further strengthen the early diagnosis and treatment of brain tumors in the middle-aged and elderly population with a high incidence of brain tumors aged over 50 years[34], and find treatments that are more effective in treating brain tumors to reduce the disease burden. Strengthening the collection and collation of tumor registry data of brain tumors in China, especially the comprehensive understanding of different pathological types of brain tumors, is of great significance to further reduce the disease burden of brain tumors in China.