Chinese General Practice ›› 2024, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (31): 3890-3895.DOI: 10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2023.0787
• Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:
2024-04-10
Revised:
2024-07-08
Published:
2024-11-05
Online:
2024-08-16
Contact:
QIAN Hongdan
通讯作者:
钱红丹
作者简介:
作者贡献:
熊畅提出主要研究目标,负责研究的构思与设计,研究的实施,撰写论文;熊畅、李志娟、王锦铭、俞筠进行数据的收集与整理,统计学处理,图、表的绘制与展示;虞瑛青进行论文的修订;钱红丹负责文章的质量控制与审查,对文章整体负责,监督管理。
基金资助:
Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX
URL: https://www.chinagp.net/EN/10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2023.0787
模型精度评定 | P值 | C值 |
---|---|---|
好 | >0.95 | <0.35 |
合格 | >0.80 | <0.50 |
勉强 | >0.70 | <0.65 |
不合格 | ≤0.70 | ≥0.65 |
Table 1 Grey GM(1,1)model accuracy judgment
模型精度评定 | P值 | C值 |
---|---|---|
好 | >0.95 | <0.35 |
合格 | >0.80 | <0.50 |
勉强 | >0.70 | <0.65 |
不合格 | ≤0.70 | ≥0.65 |
分组 | 2017年(n=17 853) | 2018年(n=21 033) | 2019年(n=22 343) | 2020年(n=22 076) | 2021年(n=21 444) | χ2趋势值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
合计 | 3 439(19.26) | 4 280(20.35) | 4 685(20.97) | 4 840(21.92) | 4 553(21.23) | 35.222 | <0.001 |
统一配供分组 | |||||||
统一配供组 | 2 279(19.71) | 2 875(20.59) | 3 100(21.32) | 3 313(22.20) | 2 877(20.65) | 8.956 | 0.003 |
非统一配供组 | 1 160(18.44)a | 1 405(19.88) | 1 585(20.31) | 1 527(21.34) | 1 676(22.31)a | 35.739 | <0.001 |
性别 | |||||||
男 | 2 165(22.44) | 2 619(23.37) | 2 808(23.47) | 2 917(24.26) | 2 593(22.58) | 0.629 | 0.428 |
女 | 1 274(15.53)a | 1 661(16.90)a | 1 877(18.08)a | 2 075(19.99)a | 1 960(19.68)a | 80.017 | <0.001 |
地区 | |||||||
城区 | 2 631(19.26) | 3 476(20.63) | 3 620(21.19) | 3 967(22.43) | 3 704(21.57) | 36.681 | <0.001 |
乡镇 | 808(19.31) | 804(19.22)a | 1065(20.24) | 1025(21.74) | 849(19.87) | 3.859 | 0.049 |
年龄 | |||||||
6~10岁 | 1 620(18.03) | 1 781(18.90) | 1 803(19.55) | 1 807(20.46) | 2 185(19.24) | 8.221 | 0.004 |
11~15岁 | 1 819(20.51)a | 2 499(21.53)a | 2 882(21.97)a | 3 033(22.90)a | 2 368(23.48)a | 30.988 | <0.001 |
Table 2 Trends in prevalence of overweight among children and adolescents from 2017-2021 in different groups
分组 | 2017年(n=17 853) | 2018年(n=21 033) | 2019年(n=22 343) | 2020年(n=22 076) | 2021年(n=21 444) | χ2趋势值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
合计 | 3 439(19.26) | 4 280(20.35) | 4 685(20.97) | 4 840(21.92) | 4 553(21.23) | 35.222 | <0.001 |
统一配供分组 | |||||||
统一配供组 | 2 279(19.71) | 2 875(20.59) | 3 100(21.32) | 3 313(22.20) | 2 877(20.65) | 8.956 | 0.003 |
非统一配供组 | 1 160(18.44)a | 1 405(19.88) | 1 585(20.31) | 1 527(21.34) | 1 676(22.31)a | 35.739 | <0.001 |
性别 | |||||||
男 | 2 165(22.44) | 2 619(23.37) | 2 808(23.47) | 2 917(24.26) | 2 593(22.58) | 0.629 | 0.428 |
女 | 1 274(15.53)a | 1 661(16.90)a | 1 877(18.08)a | 2 075(19.99)a | 1 960(19.68)a | 80.017 | <0.001 |
地区 | |||||||
城区 | 2 631(19.26) | 3 476(20.63) | 3 620(21.19) | 3 967(22.43) | 3 704(21.57) | 36.681 | <0.001 |
乡镇 | 808(19.31) | 804(19.22)a | 1065(20.24) | 1025(21.74) | 849(19.87) | 3.859 | 0.049 |
年龄 | |||||||
6~10岁 | 1 620(18.03) | 1 781(18.90) | 1 803(19.55) | 1 807(20.46) | 2 185(19.24) | 8.221 | 0.004 |
11~15岁 | 1 819(20.51)a | 2 499(21.53)a | 2 882(21.97)a | 3 033(22.90)a | 2 368(23.48)a | 30.988 | <0.001 |
分组 | 2017年(n=17 853) | 2018年(n=21 033) | 2019年(n=22 343) | 2020年(n=22 076) | 2021年(n=21 444) | χ2趋势值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
合计 | 1 979(11.08) | 2 586(12.29) | 2 862(12.81) | 3 303(14.96) | 3 313(15.45) | 224.742 | <0.001 |
统一配供分组 | |||||||
统一配供组 | 1 352(11.69) | 1 856(13.29) | 1 996(13.73) | 2 259(15.14) | 2 133(15.31) | 87.843 | 0.004 |
非统一配供组 | 627(9.97)a | 730(10.33)a | 866(11.10)a | 1 044(14.59) | 1 180(15.71) | 162.566 | <0.001 |
性别 | |||||||
男 | 1 594(16.52) | 2 051(18.30) | 2 298(19.21) | 2 713(22.57) | 2 576(22.43) | 174.708 | <0.001 |
女 | 385(4.69)a | 535(5.44)a | 564(5.43)a | 765(7.37)a | 737(7.40)a | 88.236 | <0.001 |
地区 | |||||||
城区 | 1 443(10.56) | 2 044(12.13) | 2 206(12.91) | 2 745(15.52) | 2 678(15.60) | 243.386 | <0.001 |
乡镇 | 536(12.79) | 542(12.95) | 656(12.47) | 733(15.55) | 635(14.86) | 17.030 | <0.001 |
年龄 | |||||||
6~10岁 | 1 024(11.40) | 1 140(12.10) | 1 159(12.57) | 1 350(15.29) | 1 772(15.60) | 113.330 | <0.001 |
11~15岁 | 955(10.77) | 1 446(12.46) | 1 703(12.98) | 1 953(14.75) | 1 541(15.28) | 111.245 | <0.001 |
Table 3 Trends in prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents from 2017-2021 in different groups
分组 | 2017年(n=17 853) | 2018年(n=21 033) | 2019年(n=22 343) | 2020年(n=22 076) | 2021年(n=21 444) | χ2趋势值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
合计 | 1 979(11.08) | 2 586(12.29) | 2 862(12.81) | 3 303(14.96) | 3 313(15.45) | 224.742 | <0.001 |
统一配供分组 | |||||||
统一配供组 | 1 352(11.69) | 1 856(13.29) | 1 996(13.73) | 2 259(15.14) | 2 133(15.31) | 87.843 | 0.004 |
非统一配供组 | 627(9.97)a | 730(10.33)a | 866(11.10)a | 1 044(14.59) | 1 180(15.71) | 162.566 | <0.001 |
性别 | |||||||
男 | 1 594(16.52) | 2 051(18.30) | 2 298(19.21) | 2 713(22.57) | 2 576(22.43) | 174.708 | <0.001 |
女 | 385(4.69)a | 535(5.44)a | 564(5.43)a | 765(7.37)a | 737(7.40)a | 88.236 | <0.001 |
地区 | |||||||
城区 | 1 443(10.56) | 2 044(12.13) | 2 206(12.91) | 2 745(15.52) | 2 678(15.60) | 243.386 | <0.001 |
乡镇 | 536(12.79) | 542(12.95) | 656(12.47) | 733(15.55) | 635(14.86) | 17.030 | <0.001 |
年龄 | |||||||
6~10岁 | 1 024(11.40) | 1 140(12.10) | 1 159(12.57) | 1 350(15.29) | 1 772(15.60) | 113.330 | <0.001 |
11~15岁 | 955(10.77) | 1 446(12.46) | 1 703(12.98) | 1 953(14.75) | 1 541(15.28) | 111.245 | <0.001 |
Figure 1 Prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in the unified distribution group and the non-unified distribution group from 2019-2021
分组 | APC(95%CI) | t值 | P值 | 两组比较 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z值 | P值 | ||||
超重 | -2.1 | 0.036 | |||
统一配供组 | 1.8(-2.3~5.9) | 1.4 | 0.262 | ||
非统一配供组 | 4.6(3.1~6.1) | 10.0 | 0.002 | ||
肥胖 | -2.3 | 0.024 | |||
统一配供组 | 6.9(3.3~10.5) | 6.3 | 0.008 | ||
非统一配供组 | 13.3(5.2~22.1) | 5.4 | 0.013 |
Table 4 Comparison of overweight and obesity trends among children and adolescents included in the the unified distribution group and the non-unified distribution group in 2017-2021
分组 | APC(95%CI) | t值 | P值 | 两组比较 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z值 | P值 | ||||
超重 | -2.1 | 0.036 | |||
统一配供组 | 1.8(-2.3~5.9) | 1.4 | 0.262 | ||
非统一配供组 | 4.6(3.1~6.1) | 10.0 | 0.002 | ||
肥胖 | -2.3 | 0.024 | |||
统一配供组 | 6.9(3.3~10.5) | 6.3 | 0.008 | ||
非统一配供组 | 13.3(5.2~22.1) | 5.4 | 0.013 |
Figure 2 Comparison of changes in BMl-Z scores of children and adolescents before and after inclusion in the unified distribution group and the non-unified distribution
年份 | 超重率 | 肥胖率 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
实际值 | 预测值 | 残差 | 相对误差(%) | 实际值 | 预测值 | 残差 | 相对误差(%) | |
2017年 | 19.26 | 19.26 | 0 | 0 | 11.08 | 11.08 | 0 | 0 |
2018年 | 20.35 | 20.59 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 12.29 | 12.18 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
2019年 | 20.97 | 20.94 | 0.03 | 0 | 12.81 | 13.24 | -0.43 | -0.03 |
2020年 | 21.92 | 21.29 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 14.96 | 14.40 | 0.56 | 0.04 |
2021年 | 21.23 | 21.65 | -0.42 | -0.02 | 15.45 | 15.65 | -0.20 | -0.01 |
2022年 | 22.02 | 17.02 | ||||||
2023年 | 22.39 | 18.50 | ||||||
2024年 | 22.77 | 20.12 | ||||||
C值 | 0.396 | 0.203 | ||||||
P值 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||||||
预测等级 | 合格 | 好 |
Table 5 Fitting results and tests of overweight and obesity rate among children and adolescents based on grey GM(1,1)model
年份 | 超重率 | 肥胖率 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
实际值 | 预测值 | 残差 | 相对误差(%) | 实际值 | 预测值 | 残差 | 相对误差(%) | |
2017年 | 19.26 | 19.26 | 0 | 0 | 11.08 | 11.08 | 0 | 0 |
2018年 | 20.35 | 20.59 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 12.29 | 12.18 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
2019年 | 20.97 | 20.94 | 0.03 | 0 | 12.81 | 13.24 | -0.43 | -0.03 |
2020年 | 21.92 | 21.29 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 14.96 | 14.40 | 0.56 | 0.04 |
2021年 | 21.23 | 21.65 | -0.42 | -0.02 | 15.45 | 15.65 | -0.20 | -0.01 |
2022年 | 22.02 | 17.02 | ||||||
2023年 | 22.39 | 18.50 | ||||||
2024年 | 22.77 | 20.12 | ||||||
C值 | 0.396 | 0.203 | ||||||
P值 | 1.000 | 1.000 | ||||||
预测等级 | 合格 | 好 |
[1] |
马冠生. 中国儿童肥胖报告[R]. 北京:人民卫生出版社,2017.
|
[2] |
Risk Factor Collaboration(NCD-RISC)N C D. Worldwide trends in body-mass index,underweight,overweight,and obesity from 1975 to 2016:a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children,adolescents,and adults[J]. Lancet,2017,390(10113):2627-2642.
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
|
[5] |
国务院办公厅. 国民营养计划(2017—2030年)[J]. 营养学报,2017,39(4):315-320.
|
[6] |
国务院办公厅. 国务院关于实施健康中国行动的意见. [A/OL]. (2019-06-24)[2023-04-24].
|
[7] |
无锡市市场监管局. 无锡市率先建成学校食材统一配供体系. [A/OL]. (2021-11-15)[2023-04-24].
|
[8] |
国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会. 学生健康检查技术规范:GB/T 26343—2010[S]. 北京:中国标准出版社,2011.
|
[9] |
|
[10] |
曾四清. Joinpoint回归模型及其在传染病流行趋势分析中的应用[J]. 中国卫生统计,2019,36(5):787-791.
|
[11] |
李烟然,巫抑扬,倪洁,等. 基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的四川省孕产妇、婴儿及5岁以下儿童死亡率预测研究[J]. 预防医学情报杂志,2022,38(1):88-93.
|
[12] |
World Health Organization. Report of the Commission on Ending Childhood Obesity [R]. Geneva:World Health Organization,2016.
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
|
[15] |
许凤鸣,王丽茹,李凤娟,等. 2012—2019年河南省农村营养改善计划地区学生贫血状况评估[J]. 现代预防医学,2021,48(15):2738-2741.
|
[16] |
曹薇,杨媞媞,徐培培,等. 中国2012—2017年农村营养改善计划地区学生生长迟缓状况[J]. 中国学校卫生,2021,42(3):346-349.
|
[17] |
|
[18] |
胡霄,李丽,欧阳一非,等. 2000—2018年中国十六省(自治区、直辖市)7~17岁儿童青少年超重与肥胖流行趋势[J]. 卫生研究,2022,51(4):568-573.
|
[19] |
|
[20] |
|
[21] |
|
[22] |
胡佳,韩迪,丁子尧,等. 基于2016―2020年学生健康监测探讨COVID-19疫情对苏州市6~12岁儿童BMI的影响[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志,2022,26(5):559-564.
|
[23] |
国家卫生健康委等. 关于印发儿童青少年肥胖防控实施方案的通知[A/OL]. (2020-10-16)[2023-04-23].
|
[1] | LUO Yu, LUO Dan, TANG Binzhi. Intestinal Flora: an Important Participant in Childhood Obesity [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(33): 4182-4189. |
[2] | ZHANG Bingqing, HU Xinyun, OUYANG Yuqin, XIANG Xinyue, TANG Wenjuan, FENG Wenhuan. Study on Nomogram Prediction Model for Risk Factors of Muscle Mass Loss in Non-obese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(33): 4139-4146. |
[3] | LIN Yixi, PAN Shasha, ZHANG Youjie. Asset Assessment for Obesity Control among Middle School Students: a Qualitative Study [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(33): 4176-4181. |
[4] | ZHANG Yu, YU Shuo, WANG Bingqing, RAN Qingqing, ZHANG Xiayun. Analysis of Trend in the Prevalence of Central Obesity among Children and Adolescents Aged 7-18 in Putuo District, Shanghai from 2018 to 2023 [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(33): 4168-4175. |
[5] | ZHAO Rui, CHEN Leqin, WU Yini, LI Qianqian. Meta-analysis of the Effects of Aerobic Exercise on Executive Function in Overweight and Obese Children [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(30): 3817-3824. |
[6] | FU Fanglin, PAN Yaojia, HAN Zheng, SUN Meng, GU Huaicong, WANG Weiqiang. Study on the Correlation between Body Roundness Index and Metabolically Obese Normal Weight Phenotype in an Elderly Population of Different Genders: Triglyceride Glucose Index as a Potential Influencing Factor [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(30): 3746-3752. |
[7] | XU Lili, ZHENG Wei, YUAN Xianxian, MA Kaiwen, ZHANG Puyang, LI Guanghui. The Relationship between Body Composition in Early Pregnancy and Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in a Population of Normal BMI Pregnant Women [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(29): 3602-3607. |
[8] | ZHANG Jin, ZHANG Rui, CHI Jingjing, LI Ya, BAI Wenpei. Impact of LncRNA MALAT1 in the Placentas of Pre-pregnancy Overweight/Obese Women on Maternal and Infant Metabolism [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(27): 3383-3387. |
[9] | HOU Qinchuan, ZHANG Rui, LI Binghong, ZHANG Huiwang, ZHANG Beibei, YONG Tao, LIU Yuping, SHUAI Ping. A Retrospective Cohort Study on the Relationship between Triglyceride-Glucose Index and Its Combination with Obesity Indices and Chronic Kidney Disease in Adults [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(22): 2731-2738. |
[10] | REN Ying, WANG Chaohu, ZHANG Nannan, BAO Yun, QI Songtao, DENG Yingying. Recent Advances in Diet and Exercise Interventions towards Craniopharyngioma-related Hypothalamic Obesity [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(21): 2672-2678. |
[11] | LIAO Yanping, LI Yunyi, ZHOU Zhiheng, WANG Haoxiang. Prevalence and Root Cause Analysis of Adiposity-based Chronic Disease in Older Adults Aged 65 Years and Older [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(19): 2357-2363. |
[12] | CHEN Xiaoqian, LI Lihua. Advancements in the Association between a Body Shape Index and Atherosclerosis [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(15): 1899-1903. |
[13] | SONG Weimei, WANG Xuchun, REN Hao, ZHAO Ying, CHEN Liming, QIU Lixia. A Study on the Prevalence Trend of Overweight and Obesity among Adults Aged 20 and above in Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2018 [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(10): 1245-1251. |
[14] | WANG Qingyu, LIN Zheng, LEI Yang, SUN Caiyun, WANG Mi, GU Junyi, ZHU Zhanhui, TANG Lichen. Assessment and Treatment of Avoidant/Restrictive Food Intake Disorder in Children and Adolescents [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(09): 1028-1033. |
[15] | WANG Kai, XU Baichao, WANG Zhaoxin, SU Jianjiao. Effects of Combined Motion Intervention on Body Composition, Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Cardiopulmonary Fitness of Obese Female Adolescents [J]. Chinese General Practice, 2024, 27(09): 1109-1117. |
Viewed | ||||||
Full text |
|
|||||
Abstract |
|
|||||