关键词: 高血压, 发病率, 高血压前期, Cox比例风险模型, 哈萨克族, 新疆

Abstract: Background　The Kazakh herdsmen in Xinjiang are one of the five ethnic groups with the highest prevalence of hypertension in China.Due to long-term living on cold and arid areas of the plateau，unique lifestyle and eating diet，as well as behavior exposure，the prevalence of hypertension and other chronic diseases is increasing，seriously impairs the Kazak herdsmen's physical health.So exploring the incidence rate and predictive factors of new-onset hypertension in this population，can prevent and control hypertension targetedly.Objective　To investigate the prevalence and predictors of new-onset hypertension among Kazakh herdsmen in Xinjiang pastoral area，to provide a reference for prevention and treatment of hypertension in pastoral area.Methods　A prospective cohort study design was used.From the persons undergoing physical examination between January 2008 and December 2010 in Urumqi County Hospital/Health Center，Kazakh herdsmen were selected by use of stratified cluster sampling and the ratio of each subordinate town population to Urumqi County population，and were given a follow-up every two years during 2014 to 2018，and 5 327 cases of them with complete follow-up data were included in the study finally.Baseline information （gender，age，education level，marital status），questionnaire survey results （family history of hypertension，life behaviors such as smoking，alcohol consumption，physical exercise，vegetable intake，salt intake，milk tea intake），physical parameters （height，weight，blood pressure，waistline，hipline，BMI），routine blood test and biochemical parameters〔WBC，hemoglobin，platelet count，serum potassium，serum sodium，total cholesterol（TC），triglyceride（TG），high-density lipoprotein（HDL），low-density lipoprotein（LDL），fasting blood glucose（FBG），ALT，AST〕 were collected.Predictive factors of new-set hypertension were analyzed with univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results　After a follow-up period of 1.1to 8.5 years，a total of 1 985 cases of new-onset hypertension were found，the incidence rate was 11.75 cases per 100 person-years〔 95%CI（11.27，12.24）〕．The incidence rate of new-set hypertension differed significantly by gender，age，smoking，alcohol consumption，salt intake，milk tea intake，family history of hypertension，BMI，and baseline blood pressure status （P<0.05）．Analysis with univariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that gender，age，drinking and smoking habits，daily salt intake，milk tea intake ml/d，family history of hypertension，waist circumference，BMI，TC，TG，HDL ，FBG，prehypertension were associated with new-onset hypertension（P<0.05）.Analysis with multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that age，smoking habit，daily salt intake，family history of hypertension，waist circumference，TG，FBG，prehypertension were influence factor of new-onset hypertension in men（P<0.05）.Age，daily salt intake，family history of hypertension，BMI，TG，FBG，prehypertension were influence factor of new-onset hypertension in women（P<0.05）.Conclusion　The incidence rate of hypertension is high among Kazak herdsmen in Xinjiang pastoral areas.Gender，age，drinking and smoking habits，daily salt intake，family history of hypertension，waist circumference，BMI，TC，TG，HDL，FBG，prehypertensionare associated with new-onset hypertension.It is necessary to actively identify and monitor the disease by synthesizing various risk factors，so early prevention and control can be implemented timely，and the incidence of hypertension ca be reduced.

Key words: Hypertension, Incidence, Prehypertension, Cox proportional hazards model, Kazakh, Xinjiang