关键词: 慢性病, 死亡率, 差别分解法, 早死概率, 健康中国2030

Abstract: Objective　To analyze the data of the people in Yangzhong city who died between 2002 and 2015 due to circulatory disease，malignant tumor，diabetes，or chronic respiratory disease，and based on this，to calculate the probability of premature death of these diseases，explore the effect of demographic and non-demographic factors on the trend of the mortality rate，contributing to reducing the probability of premature death of major chronic diseases，a goal listed in the local program for achieving Healthy China 2030.Methods　The census records of Yangzhong from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from Yangzhong Public Security Bureau，and the records of deaths due to circulatory system diseases，malignant tumors，diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in Yangzhong from 2002 to 2015 were obtained from Yangzhong Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The annual crude mortality rate，annual standardized mortality rate，and APC of four kinds of chronic diseases were calculated.Decomposition analysis was performed to examine the mortality differentials.The probability of premature death was calculated by life table method.Results　In Yangzhong City during 2002—2015，the overall annual crude mortality rate，overall annual standardized mortality rate for the 4 main chronic diseases was 648.69/100 thousands，341.26/100 thousands，respectively；the annual contribution ratio of deaths from these diseases presented an upward trend.The annual crude mortality rate of the 4 diseases was on the rise，while the annual standardized mortality rate of the 4 diseases was on the decline，which was caused by the interactions between demographic and non-demographic factors.The probability of premature mortality of each of the 4 chronic diseases showed downward trend during this period，and the probability of premature death in males was higher than that of females，while the average annual rate of change was lower than that of females.It was estimated that the expected probabilities of premature death in both males and females listed in the local program for achieving Healthy China 2030 could be attained in 2030.Conclusion　The deaths in Yangzhong City are mainly caused by these 4 diseases，and the overall mortality of these diseases is relatively high in China.Strengthening non-demographic interventions could effectively reduce the mortality rates of chronic diseases in this region，and during taking measures to reduce the probability of premature death，particular attention needs to be given to males.

Key words: Chronic disease, Mortality, Difference decomposition, Probability of premature mortality, Healthy China 2030 program